📰 Crypto Market Summary

• Crypto rallies into Fed meeting, led by Ethereum and Solana: Major coins are higher ahead of tomorrow's widely expected 25 bp Fed cut, with Ethereum surging nearly 8% and Solana gaining over 7% as traders position for looser policy to favor high‑beta crypto assets. The sharp move reflects anticipation that lower rates will reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like BTC and ETH while supporting risk appetite across digital asset markets. ETH, SOL lead pre‑Fed rally | Ethereum surges on Fed odds
• Bitcoin rebounds toward $94K after holding the $90K pivot: After treading water around $90K and showing fragile demand through Monday, Bitcoin has pushed to approximately $93.9K–$94K on Tuesday, a move CoinDesk links to seller exhaustion and short‑covering one day before the Fed decision. The break above resistance suggests bulls are regaining control heading into the most important macro event of December. BTC rallies on short squeeze | Bitcoin breaks $94K pre‑FOMC
• Macro backdrop: "hawkish cut" fears keep risk appetite in check: Markets price almost a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut, but commentary from Fed watchers and Forbes highlights concern over hawkish forward guidance and the central bank's $6.5T balance‑sheet runoff path, which could limit upside across risk assets including crypto. The disconnect between dovish action and hawkish messaging is keeping volatility elevated and two‑way trading likely post‑announcement. Hawkish guidance concern | Balance sheet impact on crypto
• Rising equity correlation keeps Bitcoin tied to stocks and AI sentiment: Reuters notes Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 has climbed to roughly 0.5, making it highly sensitive to swings in AI‑heavy tech indices and tariff headlines that have repeatedly whipsawed both stocks and crypto in 2025. This rising correlation means crypto is increasingly trading as a high‑beta equity rather than an uncorrelated alternative asset. BTC correlation with equities rises | BTC trades like tech stock
• ETF outflows and weaker treasury demand weigh on longer‑term bull case: Bloomberg reports approximately $5B exiting crypto ETFs over recent weeks, and Standard Chartered has slashed its end‑2025 Bitcoin target from $200K to $100K, reflecting thinner liquidity and reduced expectations for corporate "digital asset treasury" buying after the leveraged‑treasury model stumbled in November. $5B ETF outflows reported | StanChart cuts BTC target to $100K
• XRP supported by Singapore regulatory win and Asia expansion narrative: XRP's roughly 3–4% rise comes as analysts highlight Ripple's newly expanded payments license from Singapore's Monetary Authority (MAS), which could accelerate institutional cross‑border payment adoption and is cited as a potential driver toward higher prices into 2026. The regulatory win adds legitimacy to Ripple's enterprise positioning in a key Asian hub. XRP gains on Singapore license | Ripple MAS approval fuels rally

📊 Sentiment Dashboard

🔢 Market Performance

• Broad‑based rally with BTC turning positive YTD at +0.49% and ETH breaking into positive territory at +1.34%, marking a significant sentiment shift.
• ADA leads with +9.51% on the day and ETH posts the strongest 24h gain among majors at +8.25%, reflecting aggressive positioning into the Fed decision.
• BNB remains the standout YTD performer at +31.06%, while DOGE, ADA, SOL, and HYPE continue to nurse steep losses despite today's bounce.

💰 Funding & Institutional Moves

Yesterday's ETF flows showed a split narrative: BTC products bled $54.7M while ETH absorbed $35.5M in net inflows, marking a continuation of the rotation toward Ethereum as staking yields and network upgrades attract capital. Bloomberg's report of approximately $5B in cumulative crypto ETF outflows reflects broader caution, yet today's rally suggests that remaining capital is being deployed aggressively into the Fed decision. Standard Chartered's reduction of its year‑end BTC target from $200K to $100K underscores how institutional expectations have moderated after the leveraged‑treasury model stumbled, but the firm still sees structural support for a six‑figure bitcoin by mid‑2026. ETF flow tracker | $5B ETF outflows

Signal: When ETH ETF inflows diverge from BTC outflows and institutional targets reset lower, it signals a shift from speculative fervor to selective positioning based on fundamentals and yield.

🛠️ Tech, Protocol & Ecosystem

On‑chain activity remains robust despite price volatility. Ethereum's staking participation continues to climb with over 30% of total supply now staked, providing a structural bid and reducing liquid supply. Layer‑2 transaction volumes are holding steady as scaling solutions mature and gas costs remain low. Solana's network demonstrates resilience with high‑throughput DeFi and perpetuals activity keeping the ecosystem busy even as token price lags broader majors. Bitcoin's Lightning Network capacity has reached new all‑time highs, and cross‑chain bridge protocols continue to ship security upgrades and interoperability enhancements ahead of the next adoption wave. L2 transaction data | DeFi TVL tracker

Builder signal: Strong staking participation, growing Lightning capacity, and steady on‑chain activity during volatility signal that infrastructure is maturing and fundamentals remain solid beneath the price noise.

⚖️ Regulation & Policy Watch

Tomorrow's Fed decision is the marquee macro event, with 90% odds of a 25 bp cut but significant concern over Chair Powell's forward guidance and the "dot plot" projections for 2026. Hawkish commentary could quickly reverse today's gains, while dovish messaging would likely fuel further upside. On the regulatory front, Ripple's expanded MAS license in Singapore highlights how Asia‑Pacific jurisdictions are competing to attract institutional crypto activity with clear frameworks. The SEC's planned "innovation exemption" starting in January continues to draw preparation from product issuers and custodians, signaling that U.S. regulatory clarity is improving even as monetary policy remains the dominant near‑term driver. Fed decision preview | Ripple Singapore license

Signal: When rate cuts and regulatory clarity converge, it creates structural tailwinds, but near‑term volatility will be driven by Powell's tone and balance‑sheet policy.

🎟️ Events, Community & Builders

• Tuesday X Spaces focus on whether today's ETH and SOL outperformance signals true altcoin strength or just a pre‑Fed positioning squeeze.
• Ethereum and Solana developer communities host AMAs on staking economics, network upgrade timelines, and how lower rates could impact DeFi yields and gas fee dynamics.
• Institutional roundtables dissect Fed decision scenarios: dovish cut = rally continuation, hawkish cut = volatility and potential pullback to $88K–$90K BTC.
• DeFi protocols showcase new yield strategies, governance upgrades, and cross‑chain liquidity tools designed to capitalize on improving macro conditions.

Builder signal: Community energy is shifting from fear to cautious optimism as majors break key resistance and the Fed decision offers a clear catalyst for the next directional move.

⚡ Risk & Tactical Lens

Today's rally is constructive, with BTC turning positive YTD and ETH leading majors, but fear sentiment at 25 and the Altcoin Index at 18 signal that conviction remains fragile and two‑way volatility is likely post‑Fed.

Pro tip: Watch Powell's press conference tone and the dot plot projections—dovish messaging could propel BTC toward $100K and ETH toward $3,500+, while hawkish guidance could trigger a quick reversal to $88K–$90K BTC. ETH's relative strength and positive YTD turn are key signals to monitor.