📰 Crypto Market Summary

• Bitcoin hovers near $93K as traders await a likely "hawkish" Fed cut: BTC trades modestly around $92.9K–$93K after rebounding from last week's pullback, with markets pricing in a near‑certain 25 bp U.S. rate cut today but bracing for forward guidance that could limit further easing expectations. Analysts are split: some call for a run toward $100K if $91.5K–$92K support holds, while Wall Street bulls like Standard Chartered have halved their medium‑term targets amid slower ETF and treasury demand. BTC awaits Fed decision | Hawkish cut fears weigh
• Ether outperforms majors on macro tailwind and upgrade optimism: ETH is trading near $3.4K, up roughly 1.36% on the day and 8.71% over the past week, outperforming BTC as altcoins broadly firm ahead of the Fed decision. Narrative support comes from expectations that easier policy and the upcoming Fusaka upgrade could draw renewed institutional and treasury flows into Ethereum's ecosystem, with staking yields and Layer‑2 scaling providing fundamental underpinnings. ETH outperforms on upgrade hopes | ETH rallies into Fed decision
• XRP slips as breakout fails and sell pressure intensifies: XRP is down nearly 2.49% around $2.07–$2.08 after failing to sustain a move above the $2.12 area, with CoinDesk noting that heavy institutional activity pushed volumes approximately 38% above norms but failed to translate into price strength. The token is underperforming the broader market and remains negative on the week as traders fade the latest rally attempt, leaving technical support at $2.00 as the next critical level. XRP breakout fails | XRP volume surges but price lags
• Solana stabilizes after recent volatility but lags ETH's bounce: SOL trades around $138–$139, modestly lower on the day at -1.97% and still nursing losses as liquidity in smaller tokens remains thin. Flows have rotated toward larger caps like BTC and ETH ahead of the Fed, leaving high‑beta names such as SOL and ADA more prone to pullbacks. Despite the underperformance, Solana's DeFi ecosystem and high‑throughput network continue to show resilience in on‑chain metrics. SOL lags as flows rotate
• Macro backdrop: Fed cut, bond volatility and regulatory moves shape sentiment: Across the complex, traders see a third 25 bp Fed cut as fully priced, with key risk coming from Chair Powell's tone and the 2026 dot‑plot, which could spark a "sell‑the‑news" reaction if guidance is hawkish. At the same time, the OCC's green light for U.S. banks to intermediate "riskless principal" crypto trades and expectations that quantitative tightening has ended are seen as longer‑term positives for digital assets. Powell guidance is key risk | OCC approves bank crypto trades

📊 Sentiment Dashboard

🔢 Market Performance

• Mixed session with BTC and ETH holding narrow ranges near breakeven YTD levels, while most altcoins pull back modestly ahead of the Fed announcement.
• ETH leads majors on a 7‑day basis with +8.71% gains and holds positive YTD territory at +2.12%, while BTC barely clings to positive at +0.10% YTD.
• BNB and TRX remain standout YTD performers at +29.11% and +11.42% respectively, while DOGE, ADA, SOL continue to nurse steep losses despite recent rallies.

💰 Funding & Institutional Moves

Yesterday's ETF flows marked a dramatic reversal: $327.9M in net inflows, with BTC attracting $151.9M and ETH leading with $176M—the strongest single‑day ETH inflow in weeks. The shift from persistent outflows to aggressive inflows signals that institutions are positioning ahead of the Fed decision rather than waiting for clarity. The OCC's approval for U.S. banks to intermediate "riskless principal" crypto trades removes a key regulatory hurdle and could unlock significant new liquidity channels for institutional participants. Combined with expectations that quantitative tightening has ended, the structural backdrop for digital assets is improving even as near‑term volatility remains elevated around Powell's guidance. ETF flow tracker | OCC approves bank crypto trades

Signal: When ETF inflows reverse sharply and regulatory barriers fall simultaneously, it signals that institutional confidence is returning despite elevated macro uncertainty.

🛠️ Tech, Protocol & Ecosystem

Ethereum's ecosystem momentum continues with staking participation exceeding 30% of total supply and the Fusaka upgrade timeline drawing closer, promising further scalability and gas optimizations. Layer‑2 networks are processing record transaction volumes with minimal congestion, demonstrating that scaling solutions are maturing rapidly. Solana's high‑throughput capabilities continue to attract DeFi and perpetuals activity despite token price weakness, with on‑chain metrics showing consistent network usage. Bitcoin's Lightning Network capacity has reached new all‑time highs above 5,000 BTC, and cross‑chain bridge protocols continue to ship security enhancements and interoperability upgrades. L2 transaction data | DeFi TVL tracker

Builder signal: Record staking, Lightning capacity growth, and steady L2 activity during price consolidation signal that infrastructure is maturing and fundamentals remain strong beneath macro noise.

⚖️ Regulation & Policy Watch

Today's Fed decision is the critical macro event: a 25 bp cut is fully priced, but Chair Powell's tone on future easing and the 2026 dot‑plot projections will determine whether crypto rallies or sells off. Hawkish guidance could trigger a "sell‑the‑news" reaction and test support at $90K–$91K BTC, while dovish messaging would likely fuel a run toward $100K. On the regulatory front, the OCC's approval for banks to facilitate riskless principal crypto trades marks a significant step toward mainstream integration, removing compliance barriers that previously limited institutional participation. The SEC's innovation exemption framework starting in January continues to draw preparation from product issuers and custodians. Fed decision preview | OCC crypto trade approval

Signal: When rate cuts, regulatory clarity, and bank participation converge, it creates structural tailwinds—but Powell's guidance today will dictate the near‑term path.

🎟️ Events, Community & Builders

• All eyes on the Fed decision at 2 PM ET, with X Spaces and community calls planning live reaction coverage to Powell's press conference and dot‑plot projections.
• Ethereum and Solana developer communities host AMAs on how rate cuts and QT ending could impact DeFi yields, gas dynamics, and staking participation.
• Institutional roundtables dissect the OCC's riskless principal approval and what it means for bank crypto desks, custody arrangements, and liquidity provision.
• DeFi protocols showcase new governance proposals and yield optimization strategies designed to capitalize on the shifting macro and regulatory landscape.

Builder signal: Community focus has shifted from panic to tactical positioning as record ETF inflows and regulatory progress offset hawkish Fed guidance concerns.

⚡ Risk & Tactical Lens

BTC holding near $93K and ETH at $3.4K with record ETF inflows is constructive, but fear at 30 and deeply oversold altcoin breadth at 16 signal fragility. Powell's tone at 2:30 PM ET will be decisive.

Pro tip: Watch the dot plot for 2026 rate projections and Powell's press conference language—dovish = $100K BTC becomes realistic, hawkish = test of $90K–$91K support. ETH's outperformance and positive YTD status are key relative‑strength signals to monitor for altcoin rotation cues.