The Daily Drip

✅ Top Takeaways

• BTC’s worst month since 2022: Bitcoin trades near $63K, roughly 50% below its October record and on track for its weakest month since the last crypto winter.
• Tariff whiplash hits sentiment: A new 15% global tariff framework after the Supreme Court’s rejection of earlier levies keeps trade policy highly unpredictable.
• Capitulation and oversold signals: Ether’s RSI sinks into the 20s and XRP’s realized‑loss spike tops 2022, highlighting stress points that have previously coincided with market bottoms.

🧭 Crypto Market Summary

Bitcoin dropped below $63,000 on Tuesday, leaving it roughly 50% under its October record high of $126,272 and cementing its worst monthly performance since June 2022. Tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tension continue to drive a “sell first, ask questions later” tone across digital assets.

President Trump’s decision to roll out 15% universal tariffs under a new legal framework after the Supreme Court struck down his prior program has deepened risk‑off sentiment. Traders increasingly argue that the constant rule‑change risk is more damaging than any single tariff rate, complicating macro positioning for the rest of 2026.

Ether fell about 2.8% to the low‑$1,800s and is down nearly 38% year‑to‑date, with its daily RSI near 28.5 — a level consistent with oversold conditions. If support in the $1,700–$1,800 zone holds, technicians see scope for a potential double‑bottom structure to form later in the quarter.

On the alt side, XRP and Solana held up relatively better on the session, with XRP slightly positive and SOL fractionally green despite the broader drawdown. Both remain well below recent highs but are starting to attract attention as “relative strength” plays if the market can stabilize.

💰 ETF Flows & Market Structure

Glassnode data and ETF flow trackers show U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now logged a fifth straight week of net outflows, with roughly $3.8 billion redeemed over the streak. Monday’s tape added another day of redemptions, extending what has become the longest cooling of institutional demand since early 2025.

Yesterday alone, ETF flows were roughly negative $255 million across major products, including about $206 million in BTC redemptions and $49 million out of Ether funds. The shift underscores how allocators are rotating toward cash and safe‑havens while maintaining only core exposure to higher‑conviction names.

Desk take: this looks like a controlled de‑risking rather than a rush for the exits — but as long as whales are sending spot BTC to exchanges and ETF flows stay negative, liquidity will lean one‑sided on down days.

🔍 XRP Capitulation, SOL Resilience

XRP gained about 0.08% to trade near $1.35, outperforming the broader market despite a brutal February drawdown. On‑chain data show roughly $1.93 billion in realized losses — the largest spike since 2022 — a pattern that previously preceded a more than 100% rally in the months that followed, though there is no guarantee of a repeat.

That loss spike suggests forced exits and capitulation from weaker hands while larger wallets quietly absorb liquidity around the $1.30–$1.40 support band. Market watchers are now focused on whether XRP can maintain this range and convert “relative strength” into a sustained base.

Solana rose around 0.6% to the high‑$70s, bucking the broader red tape and holding support between $75 and $79. Traders are watching whether SOL can reclaim and hold above the $80–$82 zone — a psychological level that would help separate consolidation from a deeper continuation of the six‑month downtrend.

🤖 AI Jitters & Tech Correlation

Concerns over AI’s impact on business models and employment pushed the Nasdaq lower by more than 1% on Monday, adding another layer of risk aversion. As investors reassess AI’s return‑on‑investment timeline, they have started trimming high‑beta exposures across both tech and crypto.

The recent selloff has once again highlighted Bitcoin’s tight correlation with growth and software stocks: when macro fears hit future‑earnings stories, BTC increasingly trades like a levered tech index rather than a pure “digital gold” hedge. That linkage will remain key as markets digest the next wave of AI earnings and guidance.

🏢 Corporate BTC Lens

MicroStrategy disclosed the purchase of an additional 592 BTC on Monday, adding to one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries in the world. The company continues to layer into its strategy even as Bitcoin now trades meaningfully below its reported average cost basis around $76,020.

The move underscores the long‑duration nature of many corporate BTC positions: they may be deeply underwater on a mark‑to‑market basis, yet management teams still frame holdings as multi‑year bets on protocol adoption and digital‑reserve narratives rather than short‑term trades.

⚡ Risk & Market Lens

With BTC down more than 26% year‑to‑date and Ether nearly 38%, this month’s price action marks a decisive regime shift from “ETF‑led euphoria” to “macro‑driven risk liquidation.” Extreme‑fear readings, negative ETF flows and persistent whale exchange inflows all signal that the de‑risking phase is still in progress.

What to watch: whether BTC can hold the $60K–$63K band, any easing in weekly ETF outflows, and follow‑through on XRP’s capitulation and SOL’s support tests — all key clues for when this drawdown might transition from pain to base‑building.

📊 Sentiment Dashboard

🔢 Market Performance

• BTC and Ether remain the core sources of downside, each posting more than 25–35% YTD losses despite only modest 24‑hour moves.
• SOL, BNB and ADA carry drawdowns similar to or worse than BTC, underscoring how broad this deleveraging phase has become.
• TRX is one of the few majors still positive year‑to‑date, while DOGE and BCH continue to lag, trading heavy into every bounce attempt.

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Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice, a solicitation, or an endorsement of any strategy or asset. H2cryptO does not warrant data accuracy or completeness.

Crypto assets are highly volatile and may be illiquid. Always consult qualified professional advisors, use caution, and comply with local laws before making strategic, financial, or investment decisions.