The Daily Drip

✅ Top Takeaways

• Dow clears 50K: The Dow rallied 1,207 points (2.47%) to close at 50,115.67, ending a three‑week losing streak while the S&P 500 added 2% and the Nasdaq rose 2.2% as tech rebounded.
• BTC holds the high‑$60Ks: Bitcoin bounced from a low near $60,069 earlier in the week to around $68,957, but it is still down more than 20% year‑to‑date and has erased all post‑election gains.
• Flows brighten, fear persists: Crypto ETFs saw roughly $313M in net inflows led by BTC products even as the Fear & Greed Index sits at 8 and altcoin benchmarks stay firmly in risk‑off territory.

📰 Crypto Market Summary

The Dow surged 1,207 points (2.47%) to close at 50,115.67, marking its first close above 50,000 and breaking a three-week losing streak. The S&P 500 rose 2% while the Nasdaq gained 2.2%, as investors regained confidence following a three-day tech selloff.

Bitcoin recovered into the high‑$60Ks on Friday after plunging to $60,069 earlier in the week, its lowest level since before Trump's 2024 election. The cryptocurrency is down over 20% year-to-date and has erased all post-election gains amid thin liquidity and macroeconomic concerns.

Nvidia jumped 7.8% as CEO Jensen Huang declared AI demand is "going through the roof," with Big Tech planning $600 billion in AI capex for 2026. Semiconductor stocks rallied broadly, with AMD, Broadcom, and Marvell all posting strong gains as the sector recovered from earlier losses.

Amazon shares tumbled as the company announced plans to spend $200 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, a 50% increase year-over-year. While AWS grew 24% and overall results beat expectations, investors worried about margins and return on the massive capital expenditure.

Bitcoin's market depth has fallen from $8 million in 2025 to approximately $5 million, making prices more volatile to trading activity. Altcoins like Ethereum and Solana have faced losses nearing 25%, while crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy and Coinbase rallied Friday on Bitcoin's recovery.

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk rebounded 3.5% and 7.5% respectively after FDA Commissioner promised action against "illegal copycat drugs" following Hims & Hers' $49 weight-loss pill announcement. Hims & Hers shares fell 7% in premarket trading after initially surging on the news.

Despite recent volatility, 64% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 50-day moving average, with eight of 11 sectors positive for the month. Energy, materials, and industrials continue benefiting from AI infrastructure buildout, while defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities show resilience.

Fed Governor Philip Jefferson expressed "cautious optimism" while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly characterized conditions as "precarious" for workers. Consumer sentiment improved to 57.3 in February, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.5%, the lowest in over a year.

🌍 Macro & Cross‑Asset Lens

Equities have shaken off their latest wobble with the Dow’s move above 50K and a strong bounce in AI‑linked names, but policy messaging from Fed officials remains mixed enough to keep volatility alive across risk assets.

• AI capex arms race: Nvidia’s surge and talk of $600B in 2026 AI spending contrasts sharply with Amazon’s selloff on its $200B capex plan, underscoring that investors now demand clearer paths to returns on massive infrastructure bets.
• Sector leadership: With 64% of S&P names above their 50‑day averages and eight of 11 sectors positive for the month, underlying breadth still looks healthier than crypto’s recent drawdowns might imply.
• Fed tone & consumers: Jefferson’s “cautious optimism,” Daly’s “precarious” language and softer one‑year inflation expectations at 3.5% point to a data‑dependent Fed rather than an imminent pivot, helping explain choppy but constructive equity flows.

💰 Flows & Market Structure

ETF Flows yesterday were approximately $312,662,739 in net inflows, a welcome change after the recent stretch of heavy redemptions even as spot prices remain well below prior highs.

Flow detail by underlying asset:

• Bitcoin ETFs: about +$330,700,000 in net inflows into U.S. spot BTC funds, suggesting some investors are willing to lean into the recovery off this week’s lows.
• Ethereum ETFs: roughly -$21,300,000 in net outflows, pointing to continued caution around smart‑contract beta despite ETH’s modest bounce.
• Solana ETFs: around -$11,900,000 in net outflows, consistent with the deeper drawdowns many high‑beta L1s have posted year‑to‑date.
• XRP ETFs: approximately +$15,162,739 in net inflows, indicating some rotation into names that had been aggressively sold earlier in the week.

The S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Asset Index jumped 10.08% on the day but remains down 21.62% year‑to‑date, underscoring how far the market still has to climb even after sharp relief rallies.

📊 Sentiment Dashboard

🔢 Market Performance

• BTC is roughly 21% lower year‑to‑date and most majors remain down 20–31%, with ETH and SOL still carrying the heaviest large‑cap drawdowns.
• BCH stands out with positive 7‑day performance and one of the milder year‑to‑date declines, signaling a niche pocket of relative strength amid broad weakness.
• Stablecoins continue to inch higher in market value, reinforcing the idea that a sizable cash pile remains on‑chain, waiting for clearer trend confirmation.

⚡ Risk & Positioning Lens

With BTC still more than 20% lower on the year, altcoins off 25–30% and fear gauges in single digits, the backdrop fits a classic “early bounce in a stressed regime” rather than a fully repaired bull market.

What to watch next: whether BTC can hold the high‑$60Ks as equity indices grind higher, if ETF inflows broaden beyond BTC, and how quickly market depth can rebuild from roughly $5M back toward prior levels — key ingredients for rallies to become more than just short‑covering.

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Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice, solicitation, or an endorsement of any strategy or asset. H2cryptO does not warrant data accuracy or completeness. Crypto assets are highly volatile; always consult professional advisors, use caution, and comply with local laws before making strategic, financial, or investment decisions.