The Daily Drip

✅ Top Takeaways

• Technical pressure mounts:Bitcoin fell 2.48% to $67,151 after failing to hold above $70K over the weekend, now trading below its 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day exponential moving averages and signaling persistent bearish momentum.
• Dollar strength weighs on risk:The greenback rose 0.55% to 97.448 as traders repriced Fed‑cut expectations following Kevin Warsh's nomination, pressuring crypto and tech equities in tandem.
• Macro events loom large:Markets await Friday's GDP and PCE inflation data plus Thursday's Supreme Court tariff ruling, with analysts warning that crypto needs a decisive catalyst to break out of its current consolidation and recapture capital from AI and commodities.

📰 Crypto Market Summary

Bitcoin fell 2.48% to $67,151.70, Ethereum dropped 1.69% to $1,963.55, XRP declined 1.40% to $1.47, and Solana lost 3.11% to $83.72 as weak derivatives data, declining retail interest and technical resistance at key moving averages continued to weigh on major cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin traded around $68,000 after failing to sustain levels above $70,000 over the weekend. The cryptocurrency remains below critical exponential moving averages at $80,219 for the 50‑day, $87,105 for the 100‑day, and $93,629 for the 200‑day, signaling persistent bearish pressure despite trading significantly below its all‑time highs.

Ether continues to trade in the lower $1,900s, caught between $1,937 and $2,023. The token faces strong headwinds with the 50‑day EMA at $2,559, 100‑day EMA at $2,871, and 200‑day EMA at $3,094, all indicating sustained bearish momentum as sellers maintain control.

XRP fell to test Monday's low at $1.45 despite significant exchange outflows signaling accumulation. Binance XRP reserves dropped 7% to 2.553 billion XRP, the lowest since January 2024, suggesting dip‑buying support, though overall market sentiment remains cautious ahead of key macro events.

Solana underperformed major tokens with a 3.11% decline to $83.72. Analysts note conflicting technical patterns, with some pointing to a potential megaphone formation targeting $1,000 while others warn of fresh breakdown risks as the token struggles to establish decisive momentum.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.55% to 97.448 as traders questioned pricing for three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Dollar strength following Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination has pressured cryptocurrencies and other risk assets, with crypto acting as a high‑beta proxy to tech equities.

Wall Street's main indexes dropped in choppy trading after the long weekend, with Nasdaq futures falling 0.9% on persistent AI disruption fears. Bitcoin and Ethereum mirrored weakness in technology stocks, particularly Nvidia and Microsoft, reinforcing the correlation between crypto and growth equities.

Cryptocurrency traders are watching for the U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling on February 20 and Friday's GDP and PCE inflation data. Analysts warn the market needs a decisive catalyst to attract capital back from AI and commodities, with continued consolidation expected without positive triggers.

🌍 Macro & Policy Lens

A stronger dollar, Fed repricing and looming macro events are keeping crypto on the defensive this week.

• Dollar bounce clips risk assets: The greenback's 0.55% rise reflects traders dialing back expectations for three Fed cuts in 2026 after Kevin Warsh's nomination, a shift that has pressured crypto and tech equities alike.
• Tariff ruling and GDP in focus: Markets face two major catalysts this week—the Supreme Court tariff decision on Thursday and Friday's GDP plus PCE inflation data—either of which could break crypto out of its current range or deepen the pullback.
• Tech correlation remains tight: Bitcoin and Ether mirrored Monday's Nasdaq weakness, with AI disruption fears hitting Microsoft and Nvidia and dragging crypto lower as the high‑beta correlation to growth stocks persists.

For crypto, this week's macro schedule is critical—if the data and rulings lean dovish or pro‑growth, digital assets could recapture momentum; if not, the current consolidation risks morphing into a deeper retest of support.

💰 Flows & Market Structure

Spot ETFs posted modest net inflows of about $31.3M on Monday, a tentative sign that long‑only buyers are tiptoeing back in despite the technical and macro headwinds.

• BTC ETFs: roughly $15.1M in net inflows, modest but notable given the failure to hold $70K and the breach of key moving averages.
• ETH ETFs: about $10.2M in fresh capital, though Ether remains trapped in the low‑$1,900s with all major EMAs acting as overhead resistance.
• SOL ETFs: approximately $1.5M in inflows, even as Solana underperformed with a 3.11% decline and conflicting technical signals.
• XRP ETFs: around $4.5M in net inflows, aligning with the 7% drop in Binance reserves that suggests accumulation despite the token testing Monday's lows.

The S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Asset Index fell 0.16% on the day and is now down 23.03% year‑to‑date, reflecting the sector's ongoing struggle to regain traction.

Desks describe a "wait‑and‑see" market: ETF flows are stabilizing but not surging, derivatives remain weak, and retail interest is fading as traders park capital in AI stocks and commodities until crypto delivers a clear catalyst.

📊 Sentiment Dashboard

Extreme fear persists as technical breakdowns, dollar strength and macro uncertainty keep traders defensive.

🔢 Market Performance

• BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL all posted daily losses as technical resistance and dollar strength kept major tokens on the defensive.
• DOGE, BCH and ADA remain weekly winners, showcasing selective pockets of strength even as the broader market consolidates below key moving averages.
• Stablecoins such as USDT continue to anchor near $1.00, keeping settlement rails intact while traders await clearer signals from this week's macro catalysts.

⚡ Risk & Market Lens

With BTC below all major EMAs, a stronger dollar pressuring risk assets, and critical macro events on deck, crypto remains stuck in consolidation mode until a decisive catalyst emerges.

Key risks this week: whether BTC can hold the mid‑$60Ks or risks a deeper test of Tom Lee's $60K capitulation target, how Thursday's Supreme Court tariff ruling and Friday's GDP/PCE data shape Fed expectations, and whether crypto can recapture capital fleeing toward AI and commodities.

For now, the market looks more likely to chop sideways than break out—positioning is light, sentiment is fearful, and without a positive macro surprise or technical reclaim of key levels, the path forward remains cautious and range‑bound.

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Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice, solicitation, or an endorsement of any strategy or asset. H2cryptO does not warrant data accuracy or completeness.

Crypto assets are highly volatile; always consult professional advisors, use caution, and comply with local laws before making strategic, financial, or investment decisions.