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The Daily Drip
Saturday, January 17, 2026
The Daily Drip
âś… Top Takeaways
- BTC confirms triangle breakout: Bitcoin trades around $95,406, up about 0.30% on the day and roughly 9% year‑to‑date, after cleanly retesting $95K as support out of a multi‑week ascending triangle whose measured move points toward the $107K area.
- Technical internals improve: A prospective bullish crossover between the 20‑day and 50‑day EMAs, combined with a marked drop in long‑term holder distribution, suggests the current advance is being driven more by new demand than forced selling.
- Macro politics in the background: President Trump has signaled that dovish economist Kevin Hassett is unlikely to become Fed chair, with markets now tilting expectations toward the comparatively less‑dovish Kevin Warsh — a shift that could keep rates higher for longer and slow any overly aggressive BTC melt‑up.
- Gold/BTC relationship flips: Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has turned negative, a configuration that historically preceded an average 56% BTC rally within two months as rising global liquidity and the end of Fed quantitative tightening favor risk‑on stores of value.
- BTC and ETH remain up roughly 9% and 12% year‑to‑date, with weekly gains in the 5–7% range aligning with the breakout narrative rather than late‑cycle exhaustion.
- SOL, TRX, ADA and DOGE all show double‑digit YTD returns, illustrating how risk capital is selectively rotating into higher‑beta names while still favoring large‑cap liquidity.
- BCH is one of the few majors slightly negative year‑to‑date, underscoring how uneven this phase of the cycle remains across sectors and narratives.
- Majors BTC, ETH and SOL all see minor daily moves after strong weekly runs, with most large caps up 5–7% over the past seven days despite slow‑moving regulatory clarity in Washington.
- Altcoin risk ADA, TRX and BNB post healthy single‑day gains on top of solid weekly and YTD performance, reflecting selective risk‑on behavior rather than a broad altcoin melt‑up.
- Laggards BCH continues to lag on both weekly and YTD horizons, highlighting that older forks and non‑programmable assets may struggle to attract incremental capital in a market increasingly focused on utility and yield.
đź“° Crypto Market Summary
Bitcoin confirmed a breakout from a multi-week ascending triangle pattern, successfully retesting $95,000 as support with a measured upside target near $107,000. Technical indicators show a potential bullish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, while selling pressure from long-term holders has declined significantly.
President Trump indicated that dovish economic advisor Kevin Hassett is unlikely to be appointed as Fed chair, with odds shifting toward Kevin Warsh who is perceived as less dovish. This development may keep interest rates elevated longer than expected, potentially tempering the Bitcoin rally that had climbed 10% from December lows.
Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick projects XRP could reach $12.50 by 2028, suggesting 500% upside potential driven by cross-border payment adoption and spot ETF inflows. However, skepticism remains as XRP transaction volumes have trended downward, with stablecoins potentially offering more practical solutions for international payments.
Ether blockchain recorded record transaction levels, new addresses, and staked ether as financial institutions accelerate adoption of tokenization and on-chain applications. JPMorgan's launch of a tokenized money market fund on Ethereum underscores growing institutional confidence in the platform as the industry standard for smart contracts.
Bitcoin's correlation with gold has turned negative, a pattern that historically preceded an average 56% rally within two months. Rising global liquidity and the end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening create favorable conditions for Bitcoin to outperform gold in 2026.
Solana declined 0.51% to $144.12 while Ethereum and Bitcoin posted minor losses of 0.06% and 0.10% respectively. The modest pullback follows a strong weekly performance, with most major cryptocurrencies up 5–7% over the past week despite delayed progress on crypto regulatory clarity legislation.
đź“° Crypto Market Summary
đź“Š Sentiment Dashboard
🔢 Market Performance
| Coin | Dec 31 | Now | 24h % | 7d % | YTD % | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $87,508.83 | $95,406.90 | 0.30% | 5.47% | 9.03% | $1,905.95B |
| ETH | $2,967.04 | $3,317.77 | 1.05% | 7.40% | 11.82% | $400.44B |
| USDT | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.12% | $186.79B |
| XRP | $1.84 | $2.08 | 1.24% | -1.02% | 12.79% | $126.16B |
| BNB | $863.26 | $952.41 | 2.27% | 4.62% | 10.33% | $129.87B |
| SOL | $124.48 | $144.14 | 0.52% | 5.92% | 15.80% | $81.51B |
| TRX | $0.28 | $0.32 | 2.69% | 5.59% | 12.93% | $29.95B |
| DOGE | $0.12 | $0.14 | 1.04% | -0.92% | 15.50% | $23.33B |
| ADA | $0.33 | $0.40 | 3.21% | 2.50% | 21.13% | $14.38B |
| BCH | $598.96 | $593.81 | -1.61% | -7.31% | -0.86% | $11.87B |
đź’° Tokenization, XRP & Use Cases
Ethereum continues to log record transactions, new addresses and staked ETH as financial institutions accelerate tokenization pilots and on‑chain applications; JPMorgan’s launch of a tokenized money‑market fund on Ethereum reinforces its status as the default smart‑contract settlement layer.
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick projects that XRP could reach $12.50 by 2028 — implying roughly 500% upside — based on cross‑border payment adoption and potential spot‑ETF inflows, though critics note that XRP’s on‑chain volumes have trended lower and that stablecoins may offer more straightforward rails for many remittance corridors.
Signal: infrastructure and payment narratives are converging, but Ethereum’s programmable base layer and stablecoin growth currently show more usage traction than XRP’s legacy cross‑border thesis.
🌍 Macro & Policy Watch
Shifting expectations around the next Fed chair — with markets leaning away from Kevin Hassett and toward Kevin Warsh — tilt the probability toward a somewhat less‑dovish policy path, which could keep real rates elevated and moderate the pace of any near‑term BTC rally.
At the same time, rising global liquidity and the end of Fed quantitative tightening improve the backdrop for risk assets, helping explain why Bitcoin can diverge from gold in the short run while still benefiting from the broader macro environment.
Macro lens: the path of rates and the composition of Fed leadership will shape how quickly BTC can move toward its technical targets, even as liquidity trends and on‑chain fundamentals stay supportive.
🎟️ Ecosystem, Builders & Flows
⚡ Risk & Market Lens
A technically strong BTC setup, record ETH activity, negative gold correlation and still‑supportive liquidity are powerful tailwinds, but the combination of a negative BTC ETF print, evolving Fed‑chair odds and lingering regulatory delays means the next leg higher is unlikely to be a straight line.
What to watch: whether BTC can hold the mid‑$90Ks on any pullback, if ETH continues to attract both on‑chain usage and ETF flows, how XRP price responds relative to its ambitious long‑term targets, and whether ETF outflows prove to be a brief rotation or the start of a larger de‑risking wave.
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OPEN YOUR H2cryptO ACCOUNTDisclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice, solicitation, or an endorsement of any strategy or asset. H2cryptO does not warrant data accuracy or completeness. Crypto assets are highly volatile; always consult professional advisors, use caution, and comply with local laws before making strategic, financial, or investment decisions.